Midterm elections are always rough on the sitting President’s party. It’s baked into the cake.
In the last 4 mid-term election cycles the party out of power did about 4 to 13.5 points better at the polls then they did in the immediately preceding and following elections.
Nationally the average of the 2004 & 2008 elections was D +2.4, in 2006 it was D+8!
Nationally the average of the 2008 & 2012 elections was D +5.5, in 2010 it was R+8!
Nationally the average of the 2012 & 2016 elections was D +3.0, in 2014 it was R+6!
Nationally the average of the 2016 & 2020 elections was D +3.25, in 2018 it was D+8!
The shift is always there and pretty consistent. 5 or 6 points more friendly to Democrats than the surrounding presidential elections, when they are out of power and 9-13 points more friendly to the GOP then then the surrounding presidential elections, when they are the out party.
This is the baseline.
You can wish it away. You can yell Abortion! and Dobbs! and January 6! all you like.
As much as the Dems try, you can’t change the gender of a mid-term election!
This is reality.
Now don’t get me wrong, this doesn’t stop good candidates from winning an occasional race here and there or stop bad ones from losing them.
However, those are the exceptions to the rule. (see Ron DeSantis in 2018, Harry Reid, Jeanne Shaheen in 2014 and Olympia Snowe in 2006)
Sure there will be a surprise, there will be a Dem who holds on, but that won’t alter the course of impending electoral hurricane.
As the Dems grasp desperately to reassure themselves that this mid-term is different, the only thing that actually makes this mid-term different is the state of the economy; and that doesn’t help them.
Being the out-party in a mid-term election is enough to generate a wave, adding in a recession, record high inflation and a tanking stock market and we are on the verge of Tsunami Territory!
The country wasn’t in a recession in the 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018, mid-terms (two straight quarters of economic decline). This time we are! Not only was the country not in a recession in the previous 4 midterms, but each previous mid-term election occurred at a time of positive economic growth.
What about the Stock Market? Every previous mid-term election had a stock market that was higher in October of that year than it was at the beginning of the year. This year? Yikes!
How does inflation compare to previous years? Do I really need to search for a chart?
Essentially the Democrats are trying to win an election which they should lose on paper (the party in their position has lost the last 4 out of 4 times), all while having to deal with the worst stock market, the worst GDP and the worst inflation numbers of any of the past 4 midterm elections. Add in their outright hostility towards parents at school board meetings and their radical social agenda. Good Luck.
How big will the shellacking be? I’ll have another post showing you how to see and follow along during election night, but I think it is safe to say that the GOP gets to 54 seats in the Senate, 240 in the House and wins all Gov. Races except New York (which will be close) and PA and NM, which will be very close.